Current Guest: Xie Ruihai, General Manager of Shenyang Ruilong Hongsi Automobile Sales Co., Ltd.
(This shop is Hongyan Shenyang 4S shop)
Yuan Haidong General Manager of Lanzhou Haiheng Automobile Trading Co., Ltd.
(This shop is Lanzhou Auman 4S shop)
Lin Xisheng General Manager, Xiamen Shaanxi Auto Sales Co., Ltd.
(The shop is Xiamen Shaxi 4S shop)
Moderator: October has passed. The traditional “Jin 9 Silver 10†sales season did not drive heavy truck sales, and sales of heavy trucks throughout the country have yet to come out of the limelight. Near the end of the year, it is an important period for inventorying this year's market gains and losses and setting a plan for next year. In the eyes of dealers, what is the trend of the heavy truck market next year? Please ask the three to make a rough judgment.
Xie Ruihai: Since the implementation of the National III Standard, heavy truck sales have continued to decline, and the market situation is not optimistic. In the month of September, due to the impact of the US financial crisis, the domestic economic situation has also become sluggish. What followed was the weakness of the entire northeast heavy truck market, especially the sales of dump trucks. From the perspective of Shenyang's market, I think local sales of heavy trucks will fall next year. If the November heavy-duty truck market cannot be recovered, sales will drop by at least 30% for the full year next year.
Yuan Haidong: This year, we signed a sales contract for 270 vehicles with Futian Auman. Now, there are still dozens of vehicles that are not completed. It is not a big problem to complete sales tasks during the year. From the July-September II International Switching Country III to the September International Financial Crisis, the market has not shown signs of improvement for the past three months. In this market environment, everyone’s confidence is gone. I think this is the deadliest blow to the heavy truck market. The heavy truck market in Lanzhou is still in the adjustment period next year. The heavy truck market in spring should be able to be a bit better. In the second half of next year or even the following year, the heavy truck market is likely to go up from the bottom.
Lin Xisheng: I am relatively optimistic about the market next year. This year, our country’s economic development has encountered great difficulties. The wind and snow disasters, the Sichuan earthquake, and the financial crisis have all occurred within a year, and are rare. Because of this, not only the heavy truck market, but also other areas
Less affected. I think the future environment will gradually improve. After the Spring Festival next year, the market may recover, but the growth rate should not be as high as in the first half of this year.
Moderator: It looks like there is more pessimism about the heavy truck market next year. What are the three reasons for making such judgments?
Xie Ruihai: In the northeast market, heavy trucks are mainly used for engineering construction and transportation of mineral resources. In terms of engineering construction, from the successful bid for the Olympic Games in 2001, the country has carried out a large amount of infrastructure construction during the past seven years, which has greatly stimulated the demand for heavy trucks. Now that the Olympic Games are over, there are no major projects in Liaoning. Only the port has some requirements for heavy trucks. At the same time, with the sluggish real estate industry and the failure to sell the houses, it also affected the sales of heavy trucks.
In terms of mineral resources, now the state regulates the development of minerals and closes some small coal mines. I have heard that 50% to 70% of heavy trucks in Shanxi are out of service. The same is true in the northeast, and there is less demand for new cars.
Yuan Haidong: On the Lanzhou market, Auman trucks are mainly used to transport agricultural and sideline products such as vegetables and fruits. Dump trucks are mainly used to pull earth and coal. The ratio of trucks and dump trucks is approximately 1:1. At present, our main customers are mainly individual transporters, accounting for about 90%. However, individual transporters have weak anti-risk capabilities and are vulnerable to large environmental impacts. At present, the large economic environment is not good, and the products produced by local enterprises in Lanzhou cannot be sold, and they can only be limited in production, and the demand for transportation is reduced. Therefore, I am not optimistic about the market next year.
Lin Xisheng: Xiamen's economy is dominated by export trade and is the country’s seventh largest export trading port. The demand for tractors is mainly used to transport clothes, shoes, socks and handicrafts. On the eve of Christmas, it was the peak season for export. It was also a busy season for transport companies. Affected by the financial turmoil this year, foreign demand for Christmas gifts and other gifts has fallen sharply and corporate exports have been greatly affected, which has directly led to a reduction in transportation demand. Our task this year is 500 cars and we should be able to finish it by the end of the year.
Moderator: Why do you think that the heavy truck market will be booming again from the end of next year to the next year?
Xie Ruihai: The sales of heavy trucks are cyclical. Regardless of the environmental factors, the average user will change cars from two to three years. In 2007 and the first half of 2008, the market situation has been good, so 2009 should be an adjustment period, and the heavy truck market in 2010 is expected to rebound.
Yuan Haidong: At present, the lack of demand in the domestic market has led to a reduction in the transportation of agricultural and sideline products in Lanzhou. However, Lanzhou has some proposed projects under construction for roads and railways, and projects under construction will pull animal transport. The Lanzhou-Chongqing Railway has already laid a foundation. The railway from Tianshui to Pingyang is planned to be built. The expressways from Lanzhou to Tianshui, Dingxi to Pingyang and the Lanzhou Outer Ring Expressway are also under planning. These projects will be started gradually and the stimulative effects on the market will gradually be released in the following years.
Lin Xisheng: Although the international economic situation is tense and exports are affected, China’s economic environment has no problems of its own. Companies engaged in domestic trade have a good momentum and demand for heavy trucks is also relatively stable. I think that with the introduction of national rescue policies, the international economic environment should be eased next year, and the prospects for China's economic development are still good, so I think the market will pick up after the Spring Festival next year.
Moderator: So, do you expect sales to fall next year?
Xie Ruihai: We may make appropriate adjustments to the amount of carloads for the next year, which we estimate will not exceed this year.
Yuan Haidong: We are planning to plan for the next year, predicting the market next year based on local investment, national macro-control, and the needs of old customers. However, judging from the current situation, it will be very difficult for us to increase the number next year.
Lin Xisheng: We generally will not set a sales plan for the next year after December. At present, it should not exceed the amount for this year.
Moderator: The main reason for the current decline in heavy truck sales is that there are few projects, insufficient domestic demand, and unfavorable international conditions. Although the international community has issued a series of rescue measures in an emergency, after the Third Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee in China, it also accelerated the pace of rural reform and development. However, these measures will really take a long time to stimulate the market. The heavy truck market is very likely. In the recent period, it has continued to be indifferent. But dealers don’t lose heart. The amount of more than 2 million heavy trucks is the dealer’s biggest talisman. Such a large amount of ownership will inevitably determine that many vehicles will be updated every year.
At the same time, the fact that the market has become colder has actually given distributors a longer adjustment period. Dealers can take advantage of this adjustment period, develop service networks, improve sales skills, strengthen management capabilities, analyze market trends, and maintain relationships with their old customers. , Also learn more about the needs of the analysis market and establish a good relationship with potential customers. If you only do some speculative trading when the market is booming, not only will it be difficult to make a difference in the next hot market, but it will not go a long way in the heavy truck sales industry.
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