Since December, domestic methanol and dimethyl ether prices have changed sharply in November, and have begun to fall. Although from the China Fuel Synthesis Conference held recently, a high percentage of methanol gasoline standard will be submitted to the National Standardization Administration Committee by the end of this year, and the good news may be issued next year, but it still fails to curb domestic methanol and dimethyl alcohol. The rapid decline in prices of ether market.
At present, the ex-factory price of methanol in the northwest region has plummeted from 3900 yuan (t price, the same below) in mid-late November to 3,100 yuan, and it has fallen more than 20% in 20 days; the methanol prices in the north, northeast, southwest, and central China regions also have With varying degrees of decline, the ex-factory price of methanol in Inner Mongolia has even fallen below the 3,000-yuan mark, and it has only remained at the level of 2,800 yuan; while the methanol prices in major consumer sites such as East China and South China have been higher, the ex-factory price has already reached mid-late November. The highest price of 4,250 yuan fell to the current 3,500 yuan. Similar to the price trend of methanol, the dimethyl ether market has begun to weaken recently. The ex-factory price of dimethyl ether in the northwest region has dropped from the highest 5600 yuan in mid-November to the current 5,000 yuan. In Inner Mongolia, the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether is even only 4600 yuan. Diversified.
The reason for the recent “high-bay diving†in the methanol market is that the international oil price has dropped significantly from the previous period, driving the prices of international fuel oil and liquefied petroleum gas to drop slightly, and the price of methanol and dimethyl ether as alternatives to petroleum fuels has not continued. The reason for the increase. Second, methanol gasoline is difficult to vaporize in the cold winter conditions. The engine is difficult to start smoothly. The power performance is lower than that of gasoline, and the amount of blended burning is reduced, making it difficult to increase prices. Third, this year, China's alcohol ether production capacity growth is unusually rapid. In 2006, there were 167 methanol production enterprises in China, with a capacity of 134.44 million tons and a production of 8.87 million tons. This year, with the completion and production of a number of newly-built, reformed and expanded methanol projects in the Inner Mongolia Boyuan Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., and the Shenhua Ningmei Coal Group Phase I, the domestic methanol production capacity will exceed 15 million tons and the output will exceed 10 million tons, while the methanol downstream market will eliminate Ether production capacity has grown significantly this year, but demand for other areas such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, and methanol-gasoline has not increased significantly, making it difficult to support the continued rise in methanol prices. Fourth, the recent acetic acid ethyl acetate, chloroacetic acid and other downstream enterprises acetic acid demand is weak, the operating rate is generally not high, forcing the price of acetic acid is still low, the device load rate is low, slowing the demand for methanol. Coupled with the fourth quarter is the off-season demand for formaldehyde, eventually leading to a substantial reduction in methanol demand, prices fell sharply.
The drop in the price of methanol has reduced the production costs of downstream dimethyl ether products. Some enterprises that rely on outsourcing methanol to produce dimethyl ether have also begun to actively organize production, which has increased the market supply of dimethyl ether and accelerated their price decline. At the same time, the application of dimethyl ether is currently limited to a few fields such as civil gas and hair spray, sprays, etc., and mainly to civilian gas, and consumption is very limited. According to the performance of dimethyl ether, the blending ratio with LPG can be up to 1:3 in summer and 1:6 in winter, otherwise it will affect the use and combustion effects, leading to the demand for dimethyl ether for civilian gas in winter. cut back. This year, the newly added 800,000 tons of dimethyl ether production capacity, stimulated by the previous period's higher prices, has been operating at full capacity, increasing the market supply, causing its prices to continue to decline.
According to the laws of the past, the first quarter was the season when methanol demand was the weakest, and it was also when the price of methanol continued to decline. As the early rise in methanol prices is too large, too much gains, so the first quarter of next year, the rate of decline in methanol prices may be greater, although the recent decline has been 700 to 800 yuan, but there is still a possibility of further decline early next year. However, with the continuous increase in the production capacity of dimethyl ether, the demand and price of methanol will have a certain support and pull. In addition, the increase in the prices of natural gas for industrial use from November 10 onwards, and the promotion of a “one-for-two, two-fee†levy system for coal companies that have successfully piloted in Shanxi Province next year, is expected to boost the price of coal, and the recent It is suggested that the news that the country's industrial electricity prices will be raised in the first half of next year will increase the cost of methanol production. It is unlikely that the price will return to the level of 2,000 yuan or less (lowest ex-factory price) last year. The price of dimethyl ether may also be 3,500 yuan. Yuan (ex-factory price) received strong support.