McKinsey recently released a comprehensive analysis of the e-bike market, highlighting a significant shift in the industry. The report states, “Improbable as it may seem, e-bikes could finally be having their day.” According to the analysts, the sector is gaining momentum, with one particularly striking figure: “The market for two-wheel EVs (E2Ws) and three-wheel EVs (E3Ws) was valued at around $97 billion, or 4 percent of global auto sales.”

Why are these numbers important?

Before early 2020, the global e-bike market was estimated to be around $16 billion in 2016, with a forecast of reaching $25 billion by 2025. McKinsey’s new report suggests that the market has grown sixfold in just four years, hitting $97 billion annually. This indicates a massive surge in demand and adoption.

Furthermore, the report predicts that e-bike sales will nearly double over the next two years, potentially reaching $150 billion by 2022. This growth is not just a trend—it’s a full-blown boom.

What’s driving this growth?

McKinsey points to several factors: government efforts to reduce emissions, technological advancements, and changing consumer behavior, especially post-pandemic. People are increasingly avoiding public transport, leading to a rise in personal mobility solutions like e-bikes.

Can we trust these conclusions?

Many e-bike manufacturers, including Delfast, have seen sales increase by 50% to 500% since the start of the pandemic. VanMoof, a Dutch e-bike company, reported a 10x growth over 24 months, while other companies have also experienced similar spikes. This aligns with McKinsey’s findings, suggesting that the data is credible.

Moreover, the bike-sharing sector has struggled, with companies like Jump and Ofo going bankrupt. This further supports the idea that individual ownership of e-bikes is on the rise, rather than shared models.

Investments and future trends

Large investors are entering the e-bike space. VanMoof raised $40 million in a recent round, while Cowboy and Rad Power received significant funding. These investments signal growing confidence in the industry’s potential.

McKinsey also highlights declining battery costs, which will make e-bikes more affordable. With batteries accounting for about 40% of the cost, this is a major driver for growth. Additionally, stricter emissions regulations in many countries are pushing governments and consumers toward electric vehicles.

For example, the UK plans to ban ICE vehicles by 2030, and Norway aims to stop selling petrol and diesel cars as early as 2025. These policies support the e-bike market’s expansion.

What does this mean for Ukraine?

Ukraine is still in the early stages of e-bike development. While there are some local manufacturers, the market lacks mass production and consumer demand. Innovative business models, such as battery-as-a-service, are not yet viable due to the lack of standardization and infrastructure.

However, the global e-mobility market is growing rapidly, and Ukraine could play a role in this trend. Local innovation can be scaled internationally, leveraging the rising demand for sustainable transportation solutions.

As McKinsey’s report shows, the e-bike market is no longer a niche segment—it’s a major player in the future of mobility. Whether in the US, Europe, or emerging markets like Ukraine, the shift toward electric transportation is undeniable.