The advantage of inserting and mixing will break out the analysis of new energy market in the second half of the year

In the first half of 2018, the entire new energy vehicle market spurred by the subsidy policy, with a cumulative sales of 412,000 units, a year-on-year growth rate of 112%. Focusing on the passenger car market, the cumulative sales volume in the first half of the year exceeded 350,000 units, and the growth rate was 10% higher than the previous year's growth rate of 122%. In comparison, the growth rate of the new energy passenger vehicle market in the first half of 2017 was only 14.4%. Why is the new energy vehicle market so volatile? The subsidy policy has always been an invisible force affecting China's new energy vehicle market. In June 2018, the mid-year adjustment of the subsidy policy stimulated the market's early impulse. Under the impact of the subsidy policy, the existing pattern of the new energy market will be completely changed.

Read the full text in 30 seconds:
1. In the third quarter, the new energy passenger vehicle market will see a slowdown in year-on-year growth and a sharp drop in the growth rate of the chain.
2. The advantages of plug-in hybrid models will be highlighted in the second half of the year, and sales will show a steady upward trend.
3. Enterprises such as BAIC New Energy, Zhidou, Zotye will be unable to achieve the sales target at the beginning of the year, and the sales ranking will decline.

â–  Third quarter sales growth will drop sharply

In 2017, the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 777,000, of which new energy passenger vehicles reached 556,000. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers ("CSCC") predicts that the number of new energy vehicles will reach 1 million in 2018. Passenger cars have been the main sales force of the new energy vehicle market since 2014, and the sales volume is generally 60-70% of the total. According to this ratio, there will be about 700,000 new energy passenger cars in 2018. .

New energy vehicle sales in 2017 from January to December cumulative sales (10,000 units) Year-on-year cumulative growth (%) New energy vehicles 77.7 53.3 New energy passenger vehicles 57.8 72.0 Pure electric vehicles 46.8 82.1 Plug-in hybrid models 11.1 39.4 Data sources : China Automobile Association Tabulation: Car Home New Energy Channel

In the first half of 2018, the new energy passenger vehicle market has completed sales of 350,000 vehicles, with a growth rate of 122%. According to this growth rate, the number of new energy passenger vehicles will exceed 1.2 million in 2018. This is far from the forecast data of the China Automobile Association. Why is this happening?

The unsatisfactory sales volume was mainly affected by the adjustment of the medium-term policy, and the impulse of the automobile enterprises was advanced to the second quarter. On February 12 this year, the Ministry of Finance and other four departments issued the "Notice on Adjusting and Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles." Compared with the 2017 subsidy policy, the subsidy new policy in 2018 is more inclined to subsidize high-endurance, high-energy density models. In order to prevent market volatility caused by changes in subsidies, the implementation of the New Deal has reserved a four-month transition period for enterprises, that is, it will be officially implemented from June 12. During the transition period, the subsidy standard was implemented at 0.7 times the 2017 subsidy.

Comparison of new and old subsidies for new energy passenger vehicles (unit: 10,000 yuan) Endurance mileage 2017 subsidy quota Transition period subsidy quota 2018 subsidy quota pure electric vehicle 100km-150km 2 1.4 0 150km-200km 3.6 2.52 1.5 200km-250km 2.52 2.4 250km- 300km 4.4 3.08 3.4 300km-400km 3.08 4.5 400km or more 3.08 5 Plug-in hybrid car 50km or more 2.4 1.68 2.2 Watch: Car home new energy channel

According to the experience of new energy vehicles in previous years, the fourth quarter is the quarter of concentrated sales of new energy vehicles. The main reason is that subsidy policies are often adjusted at the beginning of the next year. Although the market performance this year is different from previous years, there has been a sharp increase in sales in the second quarter, but the logic behind it is no different, that is, sales fluctuations occurred three months before the change in subsidy policy. It can be seen from the sales data that the sales volume increased continuously from February to May this year, and the sales volume after the policy adjustment in June dropped rapidly.

With the stable implementation of the subsidy policy, the growth rate of the new energy vehicle market in the third quarter will resume a steady upward trend. The overall growth rate will slow down compared with the second quarter, and the growth rate will be greatly reduced. Since the subsidy for new energy vehicles in 2019 is likely to face another downward adjustment, the new energy vehicle sales curve will be lifted again after entering the fourth quarter. Earlier, Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter, the average car purchase subsidy for electric vehicles in 2019 may be reduced by more than one third on the basis of 2018. At present, the official subsidy for the 2019 subsidy has not been clearly stated, but in the context of the subsidies declining year by year, the continued reduction of subsidies is a high probability event.

â–  The advantages of plug-in hybrid models are concentrated in the second half of the year

In the field of new energy passenger vehicles, pure electric vehicles have always been the main sales force, and the market share of plug-in hybrid models is expected to increase steadily in the second half of this year. In 2017, the market share of plug-in hybrid models was only 19%, and in the first half of 2018, the market share of plug-in hybrid models has increased to 27%. From the sales curve of the first half of 2018, compared with the fluctuation of pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid models are basically not affected by the subsidy policy, and rise at a steady rate. Plug-in hybrid models ushered in market opportunities mainly in the following three areas:

First, in terms of subsidy quota, the state subsidy for plug-in hybrid models in the second half of the year will be adjusted from 24,000 yuan/unit in 2017 to 22,000 yuan/unit, and the national subsidy will only be lowered by 2,000 yuan. This is quite stable compared with the subsidy for pure electric vehicles. Moreover, during the subsidy transition period from February to June, the subsidy standard for plug-in hybrid models was 16800 yuan/car, and the subsidies for the second half of the year were higher than the transition period.

Secondly, since the plug-in hybrid model does not need to carry a large number of batteries like a pure electric vehicle, with the improvement of product technology, the cost of the plug-in hybrid vehicle has been well controlled. The relevant leaders of SAIC passenger vehicles have said that the plug-in hybrid models can basically be sold without relying on local subsidies, while pure electric vehicles need to continue to work together with battery companies to reduce costs. Local subsidies are subsidies that are financed by local finances and are used for vehicle sales. They are usually subsidized according to 50% of the state. Not relying on local subsidies means that plug-in hybrid models can be sold without relying on local subsidy policies, and the sales area will be wider.

It is also worth noting that in March of this year, BMW Brilliance launched a new 5-series plug-in hybrid model with a pre-subsidy price of 499,900 yuan. Compared with the old models in 2015, the price is reduced by nearly 200,000 yuan, which is similar to the sales price of fuel vehicles of the same class. Even with the exemption tax and subsidies that new energy vehicles can enjoy, the price of the new 5-series plug-in hybrid version is lower than the fuel version. Some analysts believe that this is the low-cost strategy adopted by BMW Brilliance to sell new energy vehicles and reduce the average fuel consumption of enterprises. However, the price cuts of up to 30% can also explain from the side that the plug-in hybrid models have been greatly improved in cost control, and will gradually compete directly with the fuel trucks in the future.

"BMW new 5 series plug-in hybrid version"

Finally, plug-in hybrid models are more attractive to private users than pure electric vehicles. Plug-in hybrid models can be enjoyed in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Guiyang, Shijiazhuang, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities. Free-shake, unlimited travel policies, and unlike pure electric vehicles, they have bottlenecks such as mileage anxiety and difficulty in charging. It is foreseeable that as the subsidies for new energy vehicles gradually decline until they exit, the sales advantages of plug-in hybrid models in the private sector will become larger and larger.

â–  BAIC, Zhidou, Zhongtai's annual sales may not be as expected

New energy passenger car users can be mainly divided into two categories: private users and vehicle operating companies. Since the operating vehicles are more sensitive to product prices, the user groups of plug-in hybrid models are basically private users. The users of models with higher cruising range and higher prices in pure electric vehicles are basically private consumers.

The user base of small and micro electric vehicles is mainly concentrated in the shared travel sector and the high-end demand for low-speed electric vehicles. For example, in the case of the celebrity company in the field of micro electric vehicles, in 2017, the company sold a total of 42,484 vehicles, of which private car purchases accounted for only 20%. With the subsidies in the second half of the year, the small and micro electric vehicles do not have the price/performance advantage in competition with the low-speed electric vehicles. The profit model of the time-sharing leasing field is still unclear, and there will be no chance of demand explosion in the short term. Therefore, the shrinking market share of small and micro electric vehicles in the second half of the year is a foregone conclusion.

『知豆D2S』

In 2017, the subsidy policy is more conducive to micro-electric vehicles. Benefiting from the good market performance of micro-electric vehicles, Beiqi New Energy, Zhidou and Zotye have become the top five sales players in 2017 with the mini-electric vehicles as the main sales force. Although BYD has occupied the position of sales champion in the field of new energy vehicles for several consecutive years, it has once been the dividend subsidy for miniature electric vehicles. In August 2017, BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu said that he would launch a miniature electric vehicle in 2018, which will be deployed in third- and fourth-tier cities. However, the car enterprise plan will never catch up with the policy change. Before the BYD micro electric car debut, the subsidy policy in 2018 has begun to turn.

The policy changes directly affect the sales performance of the models. The sales of micro-electric vehicles fell after the subsidy adjustment in June, and the market share dropped to 34% from the previous 62%. The decline in sales of micro-electric vehicles will also affect the sales of related car companies throughout 2018. The ranking is down.

The top ten companies in the sales of new energy vehicles (unit: car) Ranked 2018 1-6 months sales 2018 sales target / completion rate 2017 sales 1 BYD 71887 200000 36% BYD 113669 2 Beiqi New Energy 62318 150000 42% Beiqi New Energy 104520 3 SAIC passenger car 44348 100000 44% SAIC passenger car 44236 4 Chery 25064 100000 25% Zhidou 42484 5 Jianghuai 20032 50000 40% Zhongtai 36679 6 Jiangling 18179 100000 18% Chery 34416 7 Zhidou 12751 80000 16% Jiangling 30015 8 Geely 12383 50000 25% Changan 29063 9 Changan 11033 60000 18% Jianghuai 28248 10 Zotye 11024 80000 15% Geely 24866 Source: Conventional Watchmaking: Car Home New Energy

From the sales target of the company's respective plans in 2018, BYD will occupy the top spot of new energy vehicle sales with a sales target of 200,000 for the whole year. BAIC New Energy will rank second with 150,000 vehicles, which will be followed by SAIC passenger cars, Chery, Jiangling three companies. However, the actual market performance of car companies will be as good as they expected?

As can be seen from the above table, as in 2017, the top three sales in the first half of 2018 are still BYD, Beiqi New Energy and SAIC passenger cars. Among them, the best completion of the target is 44% of SAIC passenger cars, followed by Beiqi New Energy, Jianghuai and BYD. The completion of the target of Jiangling, Zhidou, Chang'an and Zhongtai in the first half of the year was less than 20%.

Judging from the favorable policies and the performance of the enterprise market, SAIC passenger cars may have the opportunity to catch up with BAIC New Energy in the second half of the year and become the second-largest sales force in the new energy vehicle market in 2018. In the first half of 2018, the sales gap between SAIC passenger cars and Beiqi New Energy has been significantly shortened compared to 2017. After the adjustment of the subsidy policy, BAIC New Energy quickly stopped selling the two main models of the EC180 and EC200. The two models contributed 39,903 vehicles in the first five months, accounting for 64% of the sales of BAIC New Energy in the first half of the year. Cutting off the two main models made BAIC New Energy's June sales drop 51%. However, the SAIC passenger car models are in the second half of the subsidy policy for the red line. The main energy models of the new energy vehicles are mainly plug-in hybrids. The Roewe Ei5, which sells pure electric vehicles, has a cruising range of more than 300 kilometers.

『Beiqi EC180』

In addition, companies affected by the decline of the micro-electric vehicle market are also known as Zhidou and Zotye. Zhidou's main sales model is Zhidou D2 with a cruising range of 155 kilometers. In the first half of the year, it sold 12,437 vehicles. After the policy adjustment, the old model of Zhidou D2 has been discontinued for technical transformation, preparing for the upgrade in July. . The main sales models of Zotye are Zotye E200 and Sesame E30, and the cumulative sales of the two vehicles reached 11,024. It can be seen that the sales force of the two car companies are not subsidized models, and they have slipped out of the top five in the first half of the year. Both companies are concentrated in the field of micro-electric vehicles, and the products are relatively single. It is difficult to return to the top five in the second half of the year.

Geely relies on Emgrand EV and the Emgrand PHEV, which was launched in late 2017, and set a sales record of 24,866 units in 2017, ranking 10th. In the first half of 2018, Geely's sales target completion rate was only 25%, and the overall performance was not outstanding. It is worth noting that Geely has added two new energy vehicle rich product lines in the middle of the year. In May, Geely Borui GE plug-in hybrid model was launched. In June, Geely Dorsett GSE pure electric version was launched. Two products Both are subsidized and good models. It is expected that the richness of the new energy product line will drive Geely's sales in the second half of the year, which is expected to push Geely to go up several times in the 2018 market.

"Geely Borui GE Plug-in Hybrid Edition"

To sum up the full text: The subsidy policy has always been the vane of the new energy vehicle market, and this impact may continue until the day when the subsidy is completely withdrawn by 2020. 2017 is a good year for micro electric vehicles, and the policy dividend ends in June 2018. According to the subsidy direction in the second half of the year, plug-in hybrid models and high-end pure electric vehicles will become the main consumers in the private sector, and sales will show a steady and continuous trend. Small and micro-electric vehicles with low mileage are more dominant in the field of shared travel. Due to the uncertainties in the demand for shared travel, the specific performance of small and micro-electric vehicles in the second half of the year will also be uncertain, but it is certain. Its overall market share will shrink.

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