The Iraqi Ministry of Petroleum announced on January 24 that in the context of a significant improvement in the security situation, Iraq’s oil exports in 2007 increased by 9.2% to nearly 600 million barrels, equivalent to an average daily export of about 1.9 million barrels. Although this figure is still lower than the level of 2.5 million barrels exported by Iraq before the US invasion of 2003, the overall production level of Iraq’s oil is close to the level before the outbreak of war. Iranian Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani optimistically predicted at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that Iraq’s oil production will increase to 6 million barrels per day to 8 million in the next 10 to 12 years. Barrel level.
Reserve "We expect to bring Iraq's daily output to 6 million barrels to 8 million barrels in about 10 to 12 years," Shahristani said. He also said that the vast majority of increased production will come from "green fields" that have been discovered but not yet mined. Analysts believe that Shahristani's prediction is undoubtedly more optimistic, but it is not without its actual basis.
Iraq’s proven oil reserves are about 115 billion barrels, which is only lower than Saudi Arabia and Iran and ranks third in the world. However, making the world’s major oil giants think that Iraq is “the last oil frontier in the Middle East” is not only the proven reserves of Iraq, but its huge exploration prospects are also important considerations that attract them.
So far, only 30% of Iraq’s land has been explored. Many industry experts believe that Iraq’s current reserve estimates are based on previous seismic exploration data, and its actual crude oil reserves may be at least twice the current proven reserves. In addition, Iraq still contains abundant natural gas resources, and its reserves are still unknown.
Iraq currently has at least five “super fields” in the eyes of oil giants. The average reserves of these super fields are also at least 5 billion barrels. They are the Kirkuk oil field (located in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq) and the Majeneng oil field (located in the At the Iranian border), the North and South Rumaila oil fields (in the southern part of Iraq), the Gugurna Oil Field (located in the south of the city of Basra in the south of Iraq), and the Zubal oil field (in the southwestern part of Iran). The Ummer and East Baghdad fields may also be super oil fields. In addition, there are at least 22 "macro oil fields" in Iraq. The average reserves of these fields exceed 1 billion barrels.
"Obviously, all giants and relatively small oil companies, including some Russian companies, have expressed great interest in Iraqi oil," Shahristani told reporters. "They are all very keen to explore Iraq. Work with development."
Low Cost In fact, it is not only Iraq’s extremely rich oil and gas reserves that attract oil giants, but the low cost of exploitation is also a huge advantage of Iraq’s oil. If you do not consider security costs, the cost of exploring and extracting oil in Iraq is only US$1 to US$2 per barrel, which is undoubtedly attractive compared with the current market price of more than US$100 per barrel.
Another reason why the oil giants are keen to enter Iraq is the strong influence that the United States and Britain have had on Iraq after the Saddam regime was overthrown. This kind of influence makes it possible for the oil giants to enter Iraq at a relatively low cost. Against this backdrop, the current Iraqi government has formulated a draft oil law that will open up the oil wealth of the country to foreign oil giants. Although the draft is currently in a stalemate in the Iraqi parliament, the oil giants are still optimistic about the prospects for the passage of the bill. The bill will provide legal guarantees for the oil giants to explore and develop Iraq’s rich oil and gas resources.
Moreover, the oil giants entering Iraq are likely to list their oil and gas reserves in the company’s statements. This is a “foreign charity” for listed Western oil giants whose national reserves of oil and gas resources in Russia and Venezuela have gradually decreased. : Obtaining these reserves will ensure the company's future growth and considerable profitability.
Iraq’s geographical location is also its energy advantage. Iraq is located between the Euphrates River and the Tigris River. It faces the Persian Gulf to the south, Turkey to the north, Iran to the east, and Syria and Jordan to the west. Unlike the inland Central Asia region, Russia’s Siberia, and the Arctic region, Iraq’s oil and gas resources are much closer to the major economies of East and West, and its convenient transportation and lower pipeline construction costs allow energy to Different routes are exported to the United States, Europe and Asia at a relatively low cost.
Urgency Of course, the more important significance of Iraq’s oil is that the increase in output will significantly ease the pressure on the growing supply of crude oil in the international market. Since 2002, the international crude oil market prices have continued to rise. An important reason is that the lack of investment in petroleum exploration in the 1990s has caused the global oil production capacity to stave off.
In the 21st century, the development of the global economy has placed greater demands on oil and other energy sources. Under such circumstances, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) gradually expanded its production capacity to meet global demand. However, the growth of production capacity in various countries has entered the limit one after another. Even the richest production capacity of OPEC's leading Saudi Arabia has only left more than one million barrels.
This has added to the market's instability: As demand continues to grow and supply growth slows or even stalls, any event that causes supply volatility has stimulated and heightened market expectations of tight supply, and oil prices have continued to rise. Against this background, international geopolitical events such as the dispute over the Iranian nuclear issue, the Lebanon-Israel conflict, the volatile situation in Nigeria's oil-producing regions, and Turkey’s military pressure on northern Iraq have all aggravated the decline in crude oil supply in the international market. Will greatly reduce the worry.
The International Energy Agency predicts that global oil demand will increase from the current daily 85 million barrels to 116 million barrels by 2030. Although OPEC members own approximately 3/4 of the world’s oil reserves, and 62% of the Gulf countries’ reserves, the oil prices in the Gulf region have not significantly increased production to meet global demand. The demand policy, including Saudi Arabia, which has long been the global oil price balancer, has only indicated that it will increase production by 1.5 million barrels in the next few years. This means that the increasingly tense supply and demand situation will likely continue for a long time.
The tension between supply and demand underscores the importance of Iraq’s low-cost, high-quality oil extraction: Stabilization of Iraq’s situation and increase in oil output will ease concerns about the supply of crude oil in the international market, thus contributing to the stability of the market and oil prices. Although the increase in Iraq’s oil output will still take some time, the international market is already looking forward to its rich oil and gas resources.
After editing:
Iraq has gone through too many war-torn countries. Too many interest groups are eyeing the target. As the last "natural oil field" with great potential for development in the Middle East, the current situation is what this newspaper will continue to pay attention to.

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