Incandescent light bans have accelerated, and overseas demand is strong. China's customs data this year shows that mainland LED lighting products export growth is strong. Especially in the second half of the year, the monthly average is above 40, and the speed increase is very obvious. Since 2014, the world has banned the sale of incandescent lamps below 60W. Due to the early distribution of channels, the demand for LED replacement light sources has been highlighted in the second half of 2013, which has led to the growth of the mainland export market. Under the combined effect of technological advancement, cost reduction, policy subsidies and promotion of large factories, we judge that the penetration rate of LED lighting in 2014 is expected to increase.
Chip supply and demand is good, big manufacturers' profit expectation continues to increase. With the accelerated penetration of LED lighting, we judge that the demand for LED chips will increase by 30-40 in 2014. From the supply side, the major chip factories are more cautious in expansion and are expected to be effective in 2014. Capacity growth is 20-30. Therefore, industry supply and demand is expected to be better than 2013. We believe that the chip's profitability mainly depends on industry supply and demand, scale effect and product structure. Under the background of supply and demand, the scale effect of Sanan and other chip manufacturers has been continuously strengthened, and the product structure has been further optimized, and its profitability will continue to improve.
First, the industry in the fourth quarter of the off-season is not weak, the major companies in the fourth quarter operating conditions are good. Taiwan's LED company's revenue in October-November was good. The utilization rate of crystal power capacity remained at 8-9%, and revenue was better than expected. And Yiguang and Dongbei said that the demand for lighting orders in North America has surged and the order for TV Q3 inventory adjustment has stabilized. It is also good to watch 14Q1. According to the survey, the major LED companies in the mainland have maintained good orders and started operations since the fourth quarter.
Product prices are generally stable. The survey found that the recent chip prices continued to be strong, and the profitability of the chip factory increased in the context of cost reduction. In terms of devices, the price decline of lighting and backlight package devices in the fourth quarter has shrunk to around 4. The terminal bulb price remained generally stable. We believe that price stability reflects a higher industry sentiment.
The boom is expected to continue in a better trend. Due to the early Spring Festival of the Lunar New Year, the pre-holiday stocking, overseas customers concentrated orders and other factors superimposed, the industry has continued to maintain production and sales since December, we judge that the industry boom ahead of the Spring Festival will continue. After digesting stocks during the Spring Festival, March is expected to usher in a new wave of stocking.
Second, the incandescent lamp banned to speed up the effect, strong overseas demand Since 2013, the relevant data disclosed by China's customs can be seen, the export growth of mainland LED lighting products is strong. Especially in the second half of the year, the monthly average is above 40, and the speed increase is very obvious.
Since 2014, the world has banned the sale of incandescent lamps below 60W. Due to the early distribution of channels, the demand for LED replacement light sources has been highlighted in the second half of 2013, which has led to the growth of the mainland export market.
From different regions, Japan and the EU are at the forefront of light source replacement, and the North American market has become the new growth force. According to the survey, some of the early-stage businesses that focused on exporting to the EU have begun to move to the North American market. We expect the US LED lighting penetration rate to increase from 10 in 13 years to around 25 in 14 years.
At the same time, major lighting manufacturers are also optimistic about the proportion of LED lighting, Philips, Osram and NVC in 2013, LED business revenue accounted for nearly 30, and increased to 50 in 2015.
Under the combined effect of technological advancement, cost reduction, policy subsidies and promotion of large factories, we judge that the penetration rate of LED lighting in 2014 is expected to increase.
In the early days of rapid development of LED lighting, the market's main force was to replace the stock of traditional lighting for LED applications. From the perspective of specific customers, LED lighting in the past two years is mainly for outdoor applications, high-end industrial and commercial sites. With the rapid improvement of cost performance, the broader office, home and low-end industrial and commercial lighting market is about to open (the proportion of light source is more than 2/3).
Third, the supply and demand of the chip is good, the profit of the big factory is expected to continue to increase. With the accelerated penetration of LED lighting, we judge that the demand for LED chips will increase by 30-40 in 2014. From the supply side, the major chip factories are more cautious in expanding production and are expected to be effective. Capacity growth is 20-30. Therefore, 14 years of industry supply and demand is expected to be better than 13 years.
The profit level of the chip mainly depends on the industry supply and demand, scale effect and product structure. Under the background of supply and demand, the scale effect of Sanan and other chip manufacturers has been continuously strengthened, and the product structure has been further optimized, and its profitability will continue to improve.
The LED industry's off-season in the fourth quarter is not established. Looking into the future, we believe that under the combined effect of technological advancement, cost reduction, policy subsidies and promotion of large factories, LED lighting will exceed expectations. It is recommended to continue to lay out the LED lighting panel and pay attention to the following main lines:
1) Brand light source manufacturers with high-quality channel resources;
2) The profitability of chip business such as Sanan and Dehao under high economy;
3) Packaging companies with large customers who continue to break through and have relatively stable performance;
4) Companies with large export business flexibility or participating in the global market through OEM.
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