For the purpose of Shanshan's capital increase and share of Juhua Kailan, the author called Shanshan shares as an investor on the afternoon of October 24, and exchanged ideas with a staff member of the company's securities department. It is worth mentioning that, according to the author's understanding, there are many risks of structural overcapacity in lithium battery raw materials. How should this problem be solved?
Lithium battery raw material overcapacity
For the purpose of the company's capital increase in Juhua Kailan, a staff member of the company's securities department said that the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has been rising since last year. The company mainly made this investment decision from the perspective of the control of raw material supply.
The author noticed that due to the booming production and sales of new energy vehicles, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate for lithium battery electrolyte has risen sharply since the second half of 2015. In just a few months, the price of one ton of lithium hexafluorophosphate has been reduced from the initial tens of thousands. It rose to 400,000 yuan. Stimulated by the surge in the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, major manufacturers have begun to expand production. With the gradual release of expansion capacity and the gradual decline in the heat of new energy vehicles since the second half of 2016, the risk of overcapacity has begun to emerge.
It is worth mentioning that as early as July this year, the author has hinted at the risk of overcapacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate in the report that “the downstream of the lithium hexafluorophosphate capacity is in the middle of the stock industry chain will benefitâ€, and now this risk has become a number of listed companies. Consensus. In the announcement issued by Shanshan, it showed that with the surge in sales of new energy vehicles, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased significantly after October 2015, and industrial capital has entered the industry. It is expected that with the new capacity in 2017. With the gradual release, the supply and demand of lithium hexafluorophosphate will change, and there may be some overcapacity at that time.
In addition, in the "Investor Relations Activity Record Form" previously disclosed by Polyfluoride, in response to the question of the research object, Polyfluoride said: At present, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is quoted at around RMB 400,000/ton, and supply and demand are stable. In 2017, due to the dual impact of the growth of downstream demand and the increase in the supply of new projects, the relationship between supply and demand may change steadily.
It is noteworthy that the author also learned in the process of communication with the above-mentioned personnel of Shanshan Co., Ltd. that at present, there is a risk of structural overcapacity not only for lithium hexafluorophosphate, but also for various lithium battery raw materials including positive electrode, negative electrode and electrolyte. . So how should this problem be solved?
Market is a relative structural excess
Since Shanshan has disclosed the risk of overcapacity of related products in the announcement, how is Shanshan shares considered for this part of the risk? The above-mentioned staff of Shanshan Co., Ltd. stated that the feasibility study (feasibility study) was carried out before the investment, and the project planning also considered the development prospects of the existing production capacity and future industries. It is impossible to wait for the market to get up, and then do related work. She also said that the risk is certain, but the key point is to see whether the products produced meet the market demand, because the market is a relative, structural surplus, not to say that all products are surplus.
For the risk of overcapacity in related raw materials, the author also consulted several industry insiders and found that they have a relatively consistent view on cracking the risk of overcapacity.
Relevant industry insiders said that the risk of overcapacity is related to the large-scale expansion plans of many companies, and on the other hand, it is related to changes in the new energy automobile industry. For example, at the beginning of this year, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicted that the total sales of new energy vehicles in 2016 will reach 700,000 units. However, as of June this year, new energy vehicles sold only 170,000 units. Therefore, whether there is excess capacity in the future depends on the market demand for new energy vehicles. In addition, the investigation of new energy vehicle fraud has also lowered the temperature of the entire industry. To put it simply, whether there will be overcapacity will depend on the future development of the entire industry.
So, what is the way to resolve the risk of overcapacity in the current situation? Or, what factors depend on the development of the entire industry in the future? Regarding this issue, several industry insiders said that in the current situation, it is still necessary to look at the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in the future.
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