Chavez, who repeatedly threatened to cut off the supply of crude oil to the United States, finally moved this time. On the 12th, local time, Venezuela’s state-run Venezuelan Oil Company (PDVSA) announced that it had stopped selling crude oil to Exxon Mobil Corporation, the largest US oil company, and suspended business relations with the latter. Just two days earlier, Chavez warned that if the United States continues to implement an "economic war" against Venezuela, Venezuela will stop supplying oil to it. Stimulated by this news, coupled with the recent cold spell in the United States, the international oil price has soared continuously, rising by more than US$6 in just three trading days and reaching a maximum of US$94.72.
Venezuela’s news of the “broken oil†in the United States also alerted the International Energy Agency (IEA), which said that it would not rule out the use of strategic oil reserves when necessary. However, analysts believe that due to the huge economic interest involved, this incident is unlikely to develop into a complete disruption of the crude oil trade between the Committee of the United States, so the continuing impact on oil prices is limited.
Causes Many factors have once again pushed up international oil prices due to factors such as geopolitics and climate. During the Chinese Lunar New Year, international oil prices have continued to rise sharply. On the 6th, the March crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange finished at only 87.14 US dollars, but then it suddenly made a force and it rose more than 6 US dollars in just three trading days. Closed on the 11th, March crude oil futures reported $ 93.59, once rose to $ 94.72 intraday, the highest point since January 10.
Analysts pointed out that the further rise in oil prices was stimulated by multiple factors. First is the climate. The recent cold weather in the Northeast of the United States has increased the demand for heating oil. Second, there are reports that Nigeria, the largest oil producer in Africa, may cut its daily output by 1 million yuan due to domestic safety factors and equipment maintenance plans. The barrels; there is news that due to a technical failure in oil wells, the daily production of crude oil in the North Sea area has decreased by 280,000 barrels, and Russia’s crude oil production this year due to a near-exhaustion of oil production capacity of a large oil field may also decline.
On the 10th, Chavez’s remarks that openly threatened to cut off oil in the United States accelerated the rise in oil prices. On the same day, New York’s March crude oil futures rose by $1.82 to close at $93.59 a barrel.
Chavez publicly stated on the 10th that Venezuela will stop supplying oil to the United States if the United States continues to use the Exxon Mobil Corporation lawsuit and other "economic wars" against Venezuela.
After the Venezuelan government nationalized the Orinoco heavy oil belt in May last year, 11 of the 13 foreign companies operating on the oil tanker signed an agreement with the Commission, and ExxonMobil decided to withdraw from the development project. The company failed to reach an agreement with the committee on compensation. Last September, Exxon Mobil filed an arbitration request with the International Court of Justice. On the 7th of this month, an ExxonMobil spokesperson announced that the courts of the United Kingdom, the United States, and the Netherlands have decided to freeze the assets of the Venezuelan national oil company in the jurisdiction that amounted to more than 12 billion U.S. dollars.
On the 12th, Venezuela Petroleum Company announced that in order to counter ExxonMobil's "legal and economic harassment", the company has stopped selling crude oil to Exxon Mobil. The statement said that the legal actions taken by ExxonMobil Oil Company are "necessary and malicious." Venezuelan oil minister Ramirez said on Tuesday that other members of OPEC also expressed support for Venezuela’s retaliation against ExxonMobil.
After rising for three consecutive days, oil prices in New York fell on the 12th, mainly due to the impact of the US Department of Energy's reduction of oil prices and demand expectations this year. On the same day, the New York Mercantile Exchange, March crude oil futures fell 81 cents to close at 92.78 US dollars. In yesterday’s electronic trading, oil prices rebounded again, reaching an intraday high of 93.42. As of 19:38 yesterday, Beijing time, the oil price reported 92.98 US dollars, up 0.2%.
The impact of the reaction is limited Washington dismisses
Compared with Chavez’s high profile and IEA’s uneasiness, the United States, as a party, appears to be particularly calm.
Regarding Venezuela’s remarks on “economic warfareâ€, the U.S. government also refused to respond. The dispute between Venezuela’s oil company and Exxon-Mobil Corporation is a commercial matter. White House spokesperson Dana Perino said: "When legal proceedings are conducted, what the different parties will say to win the controversy is that the federal government will not be involved."
Victor Schum, an analyst at Perth-Geetz, a U.S. energy company, believes that after Venezuela’s announcement of “broken oil,†oil prices have been stable because Venezuela’s oil company has limited sales of crude oil to Exxon Mobil. As for shaking the United States crude oil supply. Schum estimates that out of the millions of barrels of crude oil imported into the United States from Venezuela, only 90,000 barrels of crude oil are affected by "oil cuts."
Currently, Venezuela is one of the world’s top five oil exporters and the fourth largest energy supplier to the United States. However, in the case of Exxon Mobil alone, Venezuela exported less than 130,000 barrels of oil to the company daily, including approximately 80,000 barrels of crude oil sold to the US joint venture. The latest statistics released by the U.S. Department of Energy show that in November last year, the United States imported 1.23 million barrels of crude oil from Venezuela, which accounted for about 12% of the total imports of U.S. crude oil. At present, Venezuela exports 1.5 million barrels of crude oil to the United States each day.
In addition, reports from a mainstream US media also stated that Washington’s threat to Chavez was “dismissiveâ€. A U.S. government official interviewed by the media this week said that the world’s major oil-producing countries have promised the United States that they will help if there is a major problem with the supply of crude oil in the country due to Venezuela’s factors.
However, many people have noticed that this week’s action against Exxon Mobil is the first time the Chavez government’s move against the United States on the issue of oil supply has been compared to the “promulgated regularly†conditional oil embargo threat. Really." In the past, Chavez often threatened to conditionally cut off the supply of oil to the United States, but it has never really been put into action.
Caldakia, an oil analyst at the Cambridge Energy Institute, said that Venezuela’s ban on Exxon Mobil is more of a “political gimmick†and that the business impact on Exxon Mobil is “nearly minimalâ€. He said that even if Venezuela completely cuts off the supply of crude oil to the United States, Exxon Mobil and other US oil companies can easily import similar high-sulfur crude oil from neighboring countries such as Canada or Mexico.
According to Exelsen's senior vice president Albers, the company is actively negotiating with the Venezuelan government and PDVSA to seek a settlement.
Concerned about IEA's consideration of the use of strategic oil reserves Venezuela's rare measures also alerted the International Energy Agency, the organization's director-in-law Tanaka said on Tuesday that he was worried about Venezuela’s decision to suspend exports of oil to the US oil giant ExxonMobil, and he was closely watching The development of the situation. The agency said on Wednesday that given the slowdown in the US economy, this year's global energy demand growth will be smaller than previously expected.
Tanaka said that once the Venezuela’s ban on selling measures brings about a substantial supply shortage in the oil market, the organization will “stand ready†to use its strategic oil reserve. As an international organization representing 27 developed industrial nations, the IEA required its members to retain oil reserves equivalent to not less than 90 days of net import of crude oil in the previous year.
“Venezuela’s exports are mainly heavy oil. The demand for this type of crude oil is mainly in the Gulf of Mexico.†said Tanaka Shino. “So, if the country really starts a ban on the United States, its own crude oil sales will be greatly affected. influences."
In general, the IEA's assessment of global crude oil demand this year is still optimistic. Tanaka said that the IEA will slightly reduce its global oil demand forecast for 2008. He also said that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should maintain the current level of crude oil production in order to increase global oil stocks in the second quarter.
The IEA stated in its monthly oil report on the 13th that due to the global economy, especially the slowdown in the U.S. economy, the agency decided to reduce this year's global crude oil demand growth forecast. The International Energy Agency predicts that the global average daily crude oil demand this year will be 87.6 million barrels, down 20 million barrels from the original forecast. However, the International Energy Agency believes that global crude oil demand will still increase by 1.9% this year, but this increase is lower than the 2.2% expected in July last year. The International Energy Agency's monthly report pointed out that crude oil inventories of OECD member countries fell by 39.5 million barrels in December last year, mainly due to a shortage of supply and a seasonal decline in refinery volume.
In the January report, the IEA announced that it would reduce its forecast for global crude oil demand in the first quarter by 100,000 barrels to 88.2 million barrels per day, mainly taking into account the mild climate of the United States. However, the report also pointed out that the increase in demand from Asia and the Middle East is expected to offset the drop in demand in the U.S. market. "The cooling down of the US economy will not affect other rapidly growing economies, at least for now it is still a huge unknown."
Also on Wednesday, local time, the US Department of Energy will publish a week's inventory data. Analysts generally expect that the latest data will show that the United States crude oil inventories rose for the fifth consecutive week, crude oil commercial inventories are expected to be 2.7 million barrels, while refined oil and other refined oil inventories may also rise.
In its monthly report released on Monday, the US Department of Energy also lowered its forecast for oil prices this year. The report said that due to the slowdown in the U.S. economic growth, the market's demand for crude oil and crude oil products will increase less than previously expected, and the average price of crude oil this year will also be lower than the previous forecast. In the new forecast, the US Department of Energy lowered the maximum price of gasoline from US$3.5 per gallon to US$3.4 per gallon, and the average price of crude oil also fell from US$87 per barrel to US$86.46 per barrel.