Entering the second quarter of 2016, the national pure electric vehicle market is heating up. As an important part of pure electric vehicles, the passenger car market has not been able to get rid of the government's “cheat†review and the impact of the off-season, industry stagnation and market demand. The contradiction of growth is highlighted. From the hot scene of last year's supply shortage, to the fact that most of the pure electric bus materials, batteries, and vehicle manufacturing enterprises have stopped production, pure electric buses are experiencing the first pain since the development of the industry.
Compared with passenger cars, pure electric buses shoulder the important task of controlling smog, energy saving and emission reduction. Expanding the application ratio of new energy vehicles in urban public transportation has clearly become an important part of the State Council's “five measures†to promote the upgrading of new energy vehicles. .
According to industry experts' analysis, “due to the uncertainty of the policy, the subsidy adjustment policy has not been introduced so far, which has led to the suspension of production of pure electric bus companies, the suspension of construction projects, and the frequent construction of slow-moving construction. This has brought heavy demand to the demand market that was driven last year. At present, it is at an important juncture for the development of new energy vehicles. The subsidy policy focusing on the operational efficiency indicators of the whole vehicle life cycle should be introduced as soon as possible so as not to delay the opportunity."
Market cultivation has begun to take shape
According to statistics released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles in China completed 18,818 and 17,637 respectively in March this year, an increase of 63.5% and 60.5% respectively. In the first quarter of this year, the production and sales volume of pure electric vehicles completed 46,348 and 42,131, respectively, an increase of 140%.
However, the pure electric bus industry presents another picture. According to incomplete statistics, the output of pure electric buses in China was 3,155 units in March, an increase of 59.26%.
In the first quarter of 2016, the output of pure electric buses completed 6,265 units, a year-on-year increase of 65.13%, which is nearly half of the growth rate of pure electric vehicles in the first quarter.
Nowadays, the upstream battery companies in the pure electric bus industry have the capacity to go up, and the phenomenon of suspension and construction of the whole vehicle manufacturing project is everywhere, and the coverage covers Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Anhui, Hubei, Shaanxi and other provinces.
Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the roller coaster-style industry transformation triggered the society to think deeply about the “subsidy policyâ€. In order to control the smog and implement the national energy conservation and emission reduction policies, the government has formulated a new energy subsidy policy to mobilize the enthusiasm of all people to use new energy vehicles. It is worthy of recognition that in 2015, driven by the “subsidy policyâ€, the user side’s acceptance of new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, has undergone a radical transformation. From the initial incomprehension and concerns, to the present, Grab the use.
Regardless of whether it is from the policy side or the user side, the voice of pure electric vehicles to expand demand is higher than the waves.
Recently, Guangdong Province issued the “Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehiclesâ€. The "Opinions" pointed out that by 2020, the province's new energy vehicles will be promoted and applied more than 250,000 vehicles. The province's new energy bus ownership accounted for more than 75% of all buses, of which pure electric buses accounted for more than 65%. The number of new energy buses in the Pearl River Delta region accounted for more than 85%, of which pure electric buses accounted for more than 75%.
Compared with the fierceness of pure electric vehicles, the pure electric bus manufacturing industry lacking the “subsidy†policy support is not enough. Experts bluntly said: "It is unrealistic for new energy vehicles to leave the state subsidy policy in the short term and rely solely on marketization."
Operational efficiency indicators should be included in the subsidy system
On February 24, 2016, the State Council held an executive meeting to determine measures to further support the new energy automobile industry. Under the pressure of public opinion, the State Council once again showed its firm confidence in the development of new energy vehicles.
But how should pure electric vehicles develop? Recently, discussions on how to revise bus subsidy policies have become the focus of the industry. Based on the modification of the three indicators of vehicle length, driving range and unit load mass energy consumption (Ekg), there is still room for improvement, and the indicators of vehicle operating efficiency in the whole life cycle are included.
It is understood that the concept of vehicle operating efficiency is embodied in four aspects: power battery life, fast charge and discharge, high safety, and wide temperature. "Including the indicators of vehicle operating efficiency throughout the life cycle into the subsidy system will lead to a series of problems in the subsequent use and maintenance of the vehicle." Experts reminded.
A person in charge of the bus manufacturing company said: "In accordance with the technological progress and market rules, a comprehensive and objective subsidy policy should be introduced as soon as possible, and the direction of the industry should be guided by the direction of the technical route." As we all know, the development of pure electric vehicles is in addition to its own technology. In addition to strength, the construction of charging piles is another necessary condition. On April 6, 2016, the National Energy Administration issued the Notice on Carrying out Special Inspections on the Safety of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure. The "Notice" requires comprehensive investigation of safety hazards in the construction and operation of electric vehicle charging infrastructure, effectively eliminates safety risks, and promotes the establishment of a safety management and control system for electric vehicle charging infrastructure.
Solved the problem of charging facilities, and the technical route of electric vehicles was established. Is it the pursuit of the energy density of the power battery, or comprehensive consideration of the vehicle operating efficiency determined by the battery? With the continuous innovation of lithium-ion battery technology, the market is gradually inclined to the latter. Because the batteries with lithium cobaltate, lithium manganate, ternary, and lithium iron phosphate are gradually not suitable for the market, their short life, long charging and discharging time, small operating temperature range, and safety are challenged.
"Currently, lithium iron phosphate has developed to a relatively high level in energy density. It is difficult to make further breakthroughs. The lithium titanate battery now available is stable in use, which is better than the lithium ion using carbon negative electrode material. The battery is safer.†Chen Qingquan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and chairman of the World Electric Vehicle Association.
Experts stressed: "With the advancement of battery technology and the popularity of charging settings, the unilateral pursuit of energy density will lead to the destruction of the logic of electric vehicles themselves. From the perspective of operational efficiency, lithium titanate technology has obvious advantages, future market prospects. Broad." It is understood that lithium titanate technology with high lithium ion diffusion coefficient can carry out high rate charge and discharge; and battery capacity decay is very slow, life is also much higher, the cycle charge and discharge times more than 25,000 times; 50 to minus 60 degrees Celsius.
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