The current global petrochemical market is mainly concentrated in emerging economies
China Drying Network News The development of China's petrochemical industry is not driven by low-cost raw materials but driven by demand. The cost of petrochemical raw materials in India and China is quite similar and the population is very close. Therefore, India can fully replicate the Chinese model and vigorously develop the petrochemical industry. In the Indian Petrochemical Conference 2012 held in Mumbai, India, from November 8th to 9th, Sanjay Shamma, general manager of IHS Chemicals (Dubai) stated. He further pointed out: "Although India is accelerating the development of the petrochemical industry, it is not strong enough. There is still a large gap between the new petrochemical capacity and demand in India. Therefore, India will continue to import petrochemical products in the future."
According to IHS Chemicals, China accounted for about 26% of global petrochemical product demand in 2007 and increased to 34% in 2011, and this proportion will continue to increase. Sharma said that the rapid development of China's petrochemical industry is mainly stimulated by the following factors: government support, strong growth in downstream manufacturing demand, and sensitivity of Chinese companies to the market. China has built a lot of petrochemical production capacity, but these production capacities do not have the cost advantage like Middle East or North American producers. The reason for the large-scale expansion of Sinopec's producers is because they are at the center of demand. China’s long-term demand growth will remain strong, and domestic consumption prospects are also very optimistic. India needs government support and accelerated reforms to promote the development of the petrochemical industry. At the same time, Indian refiners need to increase their added value by producing petrochemical products.
The Indian government may introduce a national chemical industry policy to support the development of the country's petrochemical industry. In October this year, India’s new President Muqtaka accepted the representatives attending the 2012 Indian Chemicals Conference in Mumbai, saying that India has planned to vigorously develop the manufacturing industry and has determined to increase the contribution rate of manufacturing to GDP from the current 16% to 2025. At 25% of the time, the chemical industry will play a very important role. The national chemical policy currently being formulated will include various measures to promote the development of chemical industry.
Prasad Chandran, president of BASF India and president of South Asia, stated that India is one of the few countries that has not introduced a national chemical policy. Now, the Indian government has recognized that manufacturing will become the key to sustainable economic growth in India. India’s national chemical policy is actively preparing and the draft has been formed.
According to IHS Chemicals, the current global petrochemical market is mainly concentrated in emerging economies. These fast-growing economies are absorbing excess supply from the market. Although the current capacity expansion of the global petrochemical industry is mainly concentrated in the Middle East or China, the success of the shale gas revolution is pushing the United States and Canada back to expanding their ranks. The global demand for basic chemicals and plastics is shifting to rapidly growing emerging markets. So for petrochemical producers, there are two options: either to produce at the demand center or to produce in a cost-competitive area.
Sharma said that the successful development of shale gas has made North America one of the world's low-cost production regions. North America will add approximately 11 million tons/year of ethylene capacity by 2020. However, it is impossible for North America to absorb all new petrochemical production capacity, because the demand for petrochemical products in this region will maintain its GDP growth rate. For some products, the growth rate may not even reach the GDP growth rate. At the same time, demand for petrochemical products in Asia will continue to grow strongly. In this case, North American producers will export more petrochemical products to Asian countries. By 2020, North America is expected to export about 8 million tons of ethylene derivatives to Asia and Europe.
IHS Chemical's data shows that in the past five years, 13 sets of crackers have been built in the Middle East, and ethylene production capacity has doubled. Shamma believes that the Middle East will remain a very influential region of the global petrochemical industry. Both Saudi Arabia and Qatar are building two new world-class crackers. Each of the UAE and Kuwait is building a new world-class cracker, while Iran is building three new crackers. As a result, the Middle East is adding a lot of petrochemical capacity, but the future is ten. In the Middle East, new ethylene production capacity will be lower than in North America or China.
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