The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has fallen, how is the diagnosis in the future?

Since the second quarter of 2017, domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate prices have started to fall, and the upstream raw material market for power lithium batteries can be described as turbulent . As of the beginning of May, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has dropped to 130,000 yuan / ton, and the price of individual small-scale enterprises has reached 110,000 yuan / ton. It has reached a point where it is difficult to stop or even lose production. However, there are also some stable overseas export orders for quality. The requirements are relatively high and can reach 150,000 yuan/ton." Not long ago, the relevant person in charge of a listed company said in an interview with the media.

According to a company , due to the continued sluggish price of lithium hexafluorophosphate and the deterioration of the company's new energy sector due to the deterioration of the market competition environment , both revenue and profit declined in 2017. Lithium hexafluorophosphate business achieved operating income of 207 million yuan, a decrease of 61.61% over the same period of the previous year. Influenced by the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, another listed company's Skyline shares reported in the first quarter of 2018 that the company achieved operating income of 175 million yuan in the first quarter, down 31.15% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 8.6041 million yuan. , a year-on-year decline of 89.40%.

 

It is well known that lithium hexafluorophosphate is the main raw material of the electrolyte, and it is affected by the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate. Electrolyte companies have also been “smashed with pool fish”. It is understood that the price of electrolytes has dropped from 7.5-8.5 million yuan/ton at the beginning of 2017 to 4-6 million yuan/ton at the end of 2017. In terms of output value, the domestic electrolyte output value in 2017 was 5.95 billion, down 0.92% year-on-year. The output value showed a negative growth, and the gross profit of the company fell seriously.

Analysis of the reasons for the rise and fall of lithium hexafluorophosphate

As the core material of the battery electrolyte, the production technology of lithium hexafluorophosphate is quite high. For a long time, lithium hexafluorophosphate production technology has been monopolized by Japanese companies such as Rising Chemical, Morita Chemical and Kanto Electrochemical. The price is over RMB 400,000/ton and the gross profit margin is as high as 80%.

After that, under the stimulation of market demand, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2015 reversed to 300,000 yuan/ton. In the second half of 2016, due to the explosive growth of the domestic power battery market, the electrolyte just needed to be rapidly increased, coupled with capital speculation, the supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate appeared a huge gap, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate soared to a high of 430,000 yuan / ton.

From 2017 crash, the analysis for the following reasons:

1. The production capacity has surged sharply. In 2016, due to favorable national policies, the new energy automobile industry developed rapidly, the demand for power batteries increased significantly, and the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate for electrolyte production increased greatly, resulting in a huge gap in the supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate. Many domestic enterprises have started expansion plans, resulting in a total market capacity exceeding the total demand.

2. Due to the decline of the national new energy subsidy policy and the rising prices of raw materials such as cobalt, the domestic power battery market continues to maintain a rapid growth rate of 21.5%, but compared with 2016, there is still a clear gap, 2018 This trend is likely to continue.

3. Competitive price wars. With the release of production capacity in 2017, lithium hexafluorophosphate has experienced a serious overcapacity. The reality of oversupply has driven many companies to launch price wars, hoping to seize the market through small profits but quick turnover. Lead to further market meager profit.

The future trend of lithium hexafluorophosphate ?

In 2018, lithium hexafluorophosphate capacity will be further released, and overcapacity is already beginning to emerge, which will be the biggest obstacle to price increases.

According to statistics, as of April 2018, domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate capacity has reached 38,900 tons, and 12,000 tons of capacity will be added before and after 2019. And 2018 global production of lithium batteries or reach 182.3GW, at every 1KW h lithium battery, electrolytic solution needs to consume 1.5Kg estimated 274,000 tons electrolytic solution is required. Assuming that all of lithium hexafluorophosphate (currently the ratio of hexafluorophosphoric acid to electrolyte 1:7) is used, and about 0.14 tons of lithium salt is consumed per ton of electrolyte, the global demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2018 is 38,000 tons.

Obviously, the trend of a serious overcapacity of domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2018 has been put on the ground.

Although the total production capacity will be surplus in 2018, there are structural contradictions of high-end shortage and low-end surplus. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has basically bottomed out, and there is not much downside. With the adjustment of the national new energy subsidy policy, the downstream demand of the industry will resume growth, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate will be stabilized in the future.

 

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