The price of natural rubber futures is high

In just one week, the price of natural rubber (hereinafter referred to as natural rubber) rose by 6%. On January 24, 2011, it hit a record high of RMB 4,1200/ton. At the beginning of 2011, crazy rubber prices caused Chinese tire companies to feel profound pain.

“Now the bosses of domestic tire companies must be mad.” Shen Jinrong, chairman of Hangzhou Zhongce Rubber Co., Ltd., has always dared to speak and speak in interviews with the media.

According to the statistics of China National Rubber Industry Association Tire Branch, from January to November 2010, the profits of the domestic tire industry fell by 22% year-on-year, with a loss of 26%.

Although many companies have repeatedly raised tire prices, they still cannot offset the cost increase caused by raw material price increases. “Chinese tire companies have already faced great difficulties. Less than three months ago, the loss level was less than 30%. Now it has reached more than 50%.” Recently, Shen Jinrong, chairman of Zhongce Rubber, told reporters.

"A year ago, 20,000 yuan could still buy one ton of rubber, but now it is only able to buy half a ton, and the pressure of rising costs is too great." Shen Jinrong said, hoping that the country can throw 100,000 to 150,000 tons of rubber. Reserve rubber emergency.

Many tire companies stop production in China

September 30, 2010, domestic natural rubber spot and futures prices also hovered around 27,000 yuan / ton, and by the beginning of November, natural rubber futures prices have reached more than 34,000 yuan / ton, a month soared 25%. In 2011, the price of natural rubber rushed to a new high, and the profit of the tire industry was squeezed to the bottom. From early 2010 until now, the cost of the entire tire industry has risen by more than 60%. "Make money" has become a cloud for many SMEs.

In this wave of long-term market conditions, many domestic tire companies are struggling to survive, ushering in the biggest cold-shoulder attack after the financial crisis. "A lot of small and medium-sized tire companies have stopped production." An industry source told reporters that 40,000 yuan a ton of rubber, for these small businesses, the tires produced even costs are not back, plus they are approaching the Spring Festival , simply repair the machine, put the staff holiday, waiting for the Spring Festival and then look at how the market.

“The company has been losing for several months in a row. Natural rubber is a price for a day.” A person in charge of a tire company in Shandong said that many small tire manufacturers in Shandong have closed down due to skyrocketing natural rubber prices. “Our company only Can change the price once a month, even so, can not keep up with the rate of increase in natural rubber prices.” Persons related to Giti Tire also said that on the one hand, natural rubber prices reached the highest level in history, on the other hand, the profitability of the tire industry declined. To the lowest level, such a high rubber price, tire companies can hardly insist.

Businesses want countries to throw out reserve rubber

From 25,805 yuan/ton on April 15, 2010, to 9,955 yuan/ton on June 8, and once again set a new record high of 38,320 yuan/ton on November 11, last year, the trend of natural rubber was a large one. The word "V" fell rapidly and rebounded even more.

In the first year of 2011, natural rubber raised a wave of rising prices. After a month's adjustment of 36,000~38,000 yuan/ton, it successfully broke the 40,000 yuan mark last week and set an intraday high of 41200 yuan/ton on Monday. The new high.

Shen Jinrong told reporters that if the price of rubber continues to rise, there may be a loss in the entire industry, and the consequences are very serious. "A lot of tire companies have cut production and stopped production," he said.

“The China Rubber Industry Association has submitted an application to the relevant national authorities last month and hopes to put in 10 to 150,000 tons of national reserve rubber again.” Shen Jinrong told reporters that this can, to a certain extent, curb market prices for natural rubber. The momentum of growth has eased the difficulties of enterprises. In April 2010, the country had thrown 100,000 tons of reserve rubber, and the market price fell down. However, this move does not “fix the root cause”.

“I believe that the market rule that prices fluctuate around value is constant. Now the price of natural rubber has deviated far from value, but this is not sustainable.” Shen Jinrong stated that this high-price bubble will always be punctured. However, the specifics of how to go, the situation is still difficult to predict. "If you continue to let the price rise, it is the rubber plantation that is really hurt." He told reporters that many companies are now increasing their R&D efforts in the replacement of natural rubber, and more and more synthetic rubber products have become available. If natural rubber does not return, The normal value, the company will choose alternatives.

Crazy rubber price is behind the capital boost

Regarding the new high of rubber prices in this round, whether there is any fund speculation or not, there are different views in the industry.

The industry believes that this price increase is a multi-faceted reason. There is a reduction in the production of rubber in Southeast Asia, changes in supply and demand, growth in demand for rubber, and speculation among middlemen. However, Shen Jinrong told this reporter yesterday, "This round of price increases is mainly capital speculation."

He believes that Thailand's current weather is normal and weak, and it has not reached a disastrous climate, while Indonesia and Malaysia have good weather, and another group of emerging rubber growers have expanded their area, and the overall supply is still in the normal range. .

In order to corroborate his point of view, Shen Jinrong reported a set of data: In 2010, for a long period of time, the average daily trading volume of natural rubber in the Shanghai futures market was 1.5 million lots, and 1 lot was 5 tons, which meant 7.5 million daily Tonnes of natural rubber are traded, and the domestic one-year natural rubber consumption is 300-3.2 million tons. "A day's trading volume is equivalent to 2 years of usage, it is not normal. The recent daily trading volume is also 7.8 million hands. "He believes that "unreasonable trading in the futures market makes natural rubber easier to manipulate. For instance, there are too few natural rubber varieties traded on the Shanghai futures market. This makes the futures market conducive to long positions. Generally, a billion yuan can manipulate the market."

However, some people think that the price rise of rubber is not related to speculation. Wu Ling, the chief analyst of New Century Futures, believes that this wave of price increases, the possibility of capital speculation is not great. The last wave of skyrocketing was in November 2010. There was indeed speculation that rising 20% ​​a day was not unusual. At that time, the main contract was 1105 contracts. The highest futures price was 3,000 yuan higher than the spot price. The volume reached 1.8 million hands on November 11 and averaged around 1.2 million lots a day, and the transaction was very active.

The main contract of this wave is also in May. The futures price and spot price are basically the same. The amount of hands changed yesterday was more than 600,000 hands, and the positions were almost the same as at the time, so the possibility of hot money speculation was not high.

Wu Ling believes that the rise of this wave is mainly due to real factors: Almost all products are on the rise in 2011. In 2010, China’s auto sales are leading the world again, and the demand for basic rubber is very high. In general, the year beginning near the beginning of the new year and ending in April and May of the coming year is the period of rubber stoppage. The supply of green and yellow is not acceptable, and at the end of the year it is the peak season for automobile sales. It is now that the seller is not selling bullish bullish, and the buyer is not buying waiting to fall. "A lot of our domestic rubber is imported from Malaysia and Thailand, and foreign countries have kept rising, which is also the reason why domestic rubber prices remain high." Wu Ling said that natural rubber fell to 35,000 yuan / ton more reasonable.

The new car does not have to be aborted for the time being

Five domestic tire companies, such as Hangzhou Zhongce, Fengshen Tire and Triangle Tire, have accumulated a 12% price increase since the beginning of 2010. For companies, raising prices is a frustrating move to absorb rising costs.

"If you do not increase prices, companies will not survive." Said a boss of a tire company. Shen Jinrong also told reporters that if rubber prices continue to remain high, it does not rule out the possibility of price increases. For ordinary consumers, is it necessary to quickly pick up a few tires?

Some car owners who happen to have tire preparations expressed concern to reporters. Mr. Zhang of Hangzhou said: "The car has been open for more than four years. I think that several tyres should be changed. If you buy it later, will you have to spend more?"

The reporter asked several 4S stores, most of them said: “The tire basically did not rise too much, the possibility of a recent big rise is not large.” Insiders said that this is mainly because of the large profit margins of the 4S shop, the impact of rising rubber Comparatively speaking, the cost of raw materials has been consumed in the selling price, and ordinary consumers do not need to prepare a few tires early.

However, for private cars that have a mileage of more than 50,000 kilometers to 70,000 kilometers, if they haven’t changed their tires, it is advisable to start early. First, use spare tires in the trunk, and second, you can use the opportunity to escape the price increase.

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