It is reported that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is currently revising the threshold of power battery specifications, setting new access standards in terms of production capacity, production conditions, and technology research and development capabilities. The standards may be introduced in the near future. In the past two years, with the soaring production and sales of new energy vehicles, the power battery as the heart of new energy vehicles has also entered a period of rapid development. In 2020, the number of new energy vehicles in the country will reach 5 million units. Thanks to this positive boost, from 2015, China's power battery industry has set off a large-scale expansion of production, optimistic about the continued growth of the new energy vehicle market, with a view to the rapid development of the market. Grab the opportunity.
For example, in October 2016, Ningde announced that it would invest 10 billion yuan in Jiangsu Puyang to build a lithium battery factory with an annual production capacity of 10GWh. Its president, Huang Shilin, said that by 2020, the power battery capacity of Ningde era will reach 50GWh. Camel shares (601311, shares it) announced at the end of last year, the first phase of the 1GWh new energy vehicle power battery production line began to operate at full capacity. According to the plan, Camel will continue to build a total of 4GWh of power battery capacity.
The practice of Ningde era and Camel shares is only the epitome of this round of expansion of power battery capacity. Almost all domestic power battery companies have already planned or launched new production lines, BYD (002594, stock bar), Tianjin Lishen, Waterma, Tian Can, Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074, shares it), Yiwei Lithium (300014, shares it), Nandu Power (300068, shares it), Shanshan shares (600884, shares it), Wanxiang A123, Yiwei lithium battery are all in the list . Statistics show that in 2016, the capital investment in the power battery sector has exceeded 100 billion yuan.
In the industry view, the new domestic power battery capacity in 2016 was 2.8 times that of 2015, while the output increased by only 82%. If all of these capacities are released, the power battery capacity will reach 170GWh/year. What is the demand for power batteries in China? According to an analysis report from Industrial Securities (601377), China's power battery demand in 2016 is about 28GWh. It is estimated that the demand for power batteries will exceed 90GWh by 2020.
According to the market sales ratio of electric bus and electric passenger car 1:10, the 170GWh/year capacity can meet the total demand of 500,000 electric buses and 5 million electric passenger cars per year. However, according to China's new energy vehicle development plan, this may be the goal of China after 2025. Undoubtedly, with this round of power battery expansion orgasm, overcapacity has already appeared.
Entering 2017, the pace of capacity expansion is still continuing, but this capacity expansion is more concentrated in the ternary battery technology route. This stems from the introduction of the “Notice on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles†at the beginning of the new year, which is commonly known as the “New Country Supplementâ€, which puts forward higher requirements for the mileage of new energy vehicles. From the existing main lithium iron phosphate to ternary materials.
Faced with new requirements, the already surplus power battery industry has begun a new round of expansion. The industry expects that the new investment scale of power batteries will continue to grow in 2017 and will remain above 100 billion yuan.
On the one hand, the continuous expansion of the power battery, on the one hand, is generally expected to slow down the growth of new energy vehicles. Affected by the investigation of new energy vehicle fraud and the introduction of “new state supplementâ€, the subsidies for new energy vehicles have been declining and the market supervision has been strengthened, so that the once-hot new energy vehicles are rationally cooled.
The China Automobile Association expects that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach 800,000 in 2017, but there are also many analysis forecasts or 600,000 units. The supply side capacity is expanding and the application side market is slowing down. It is foreseeable that the battery capacity will be adjusted or fluctuating.
An obvious benefit of capacity expansion and increased competition is the decline in battery costs – the reduction in raw material costs due to the rapid expansion of the battery industry chain, especially the cost of the main materials (positive, negative, electrolyte, isolation) Membrane), other important materials include steel shell/aluminum shell of square-shell battery; material system gradually changes from lithium iron phosphate to ternary system, energy density is further improved; scale effect and production efficiency brought by further expansion of production capacity The manufacturing cost of the upgrade is reduced.
At the beginning of this year, Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, made a direct statement at the 100-person electric vehicle meeting. The problem of insufficient high-end power battery capacity and low-end overcapacity was further aggravated. "Not only that, but the key issues in the field of power batteries are the low level of technology and the lack of battery standards. At the same time, there are many problems such as low manufacturing yield, poor safety and high cost."
Profit-seeking is the nature of the enterprise. Facing this bad ecology, upgrading and strictening require a two-pronged approach. The promotion is to increase the basic research of the battery industry, avoid low-level redundant construction, enhance core competitiveness, and comprehensively improve battery production, system integration and control capabilities; Yan Jin is a "scatter, small, weak" development of the industry, and establish national production capacity. Early warning mechanism to guide industry enterprises to rationally plan capacity development plans.
The development of the new energy automobile industry has put forward higher requirements for power batteries, especially for battery quality, energy density, safety factor, etc. At the same time, battery manufacturing is also moving toward informationization and stabilization. The core competitiveness of power battery companies is to accelerate the pace of intelligent manufacturing of batteries through technological innovation, production automation, and management standardization, and to promote the entry of China's battery products into higher-end markets to meet the high-quality requirements of new energy vehicles, rather than blindly The land expands production capacity, and the output is not heavy.
At the same time, the establishment of a government-led, industry-focused power battery research and development institutions, such as the national level has established the National Power Battery Innovation Center and Industrial Innovation Alliance in 2016, and organized the industry to release the power battery technology roadmap for the industry development. Clear goals and rationally guide social investment.
In terms of strict entry, the state sets industry access conditions, and those who fail to meet the standards are forbidden. It is reported that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is currently revising the threshold of power battery specifications, setting new access standards in terms of production capacity, production conditions, and technology research and development capabilities. The standards may be introduced in the near future.
“After the big waves, we will see the real gold deposit.†Under the market's survival of the fittest and the efforts of all parties, China's new power (310328, fund bar) battery industry will face a new round of reshuffle, industry concentration will be further enhanced, enterprises in technology The promotion and layout of R&D and innovation will not only benefit the long-term development of the company itself, but also promote the rapid development of China's power battery related technologies.