The fastest time to adjust domestic oil prices will occur between September and October

Several leading domestic investment institutions have also released forecasts indicating that as international oil prices decline, expectations for a potential price adjustment by the Chinese government in the second half of the year have risen. Some analysts suggest that the most likely period for such an adjustment could fall between September and October, with the proposed increase possibly being lower than the 16% to 18% hike seen on June 20. Recent research reports from various agencies, shared with a buyer company, have boldly predicted a high likelihood of a product price adjustment in the second half of this year. These predictions reflect growing concerns over the impact of fluctuating global oil markets on domestic energy pricing. Haitong Securities stated in its report that refined oil prices are expected to rise this year. “The government has recognized the severity of the discrepancy between crude oil and refined oil prices. The price adjustment in June demonstrated the government’s resolve and confidence in pushing forward with reform in the refining sector.” The firm also predicts that, following the conclusion of the Olympic Games and amid ongoing volatility in crude oil prices—whether upward or downward—the government is very likely to raise refined oil prices during the year. This move could significantly enhance the profitability of refinery companies. Regarding the possible rate of adjustment, different agencies have varying views, but there is a general consensus that the increase would likely range between RMB 300 and RMB 500 per ton. “If international crude oil prices drop back to $95 per barrel, China’s refined oil prices will align more closely with global levels. With current crude prices still above $110, a 15% to 20% adjustment would effectively address the price gap,” said the company’s economists. As market conditions continue to evolve, the pressure on policymakers to make timely and effective adjustments is increasing, which could have significant implications for both consumers and industry stakeholders.

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