A number of leading domestic investment institutions have also released forecasts, noting that as international oil prices decline, expectations for a potential price adjustment by the Chinese government in the second half of the year are growing. Some analysts suggest that the most likely period for the next adjustment could fall between September and October, with the rate possibly being lower than the 16% to 18% increase seen on June 20.
Recent reports from various research agencies have indicated a high probability of another price adjustment in the latter half of the year. These predictions have been shared with several buyer companies, signaling a growing concern over the stability of fuel pricing.
Haitong Securities stated in its report that refined oil prices are expected to rise this year. “The government has recognized the severity of the discrepancy between crude oil and refined oil prices. The adjustment in June demonstrated the administration’s commitment to reforming the refining sector,†the report said.
The firm also predicts that with the conclusion of the Olympic Games and the ongoing volatility in global crude oil markets, the government is highly likely to implement another price hike during the year. This move could significantly boost the profitability of domestic refining companies.
While different agencies offer varying estimates on the exact percentage of the adjustment, there is a general agreement that the increase may range between RMB 300 and RMB 500 per ton. Some economists even suggested that if international crude oil prices drop back to around $95 per barrel, China’s refined oil prices would align more closely with global levels. Currently, with crude prices above $110, a 15% to 20% adjustment would help bridge the gap and bring domestic prices closer to international benchmarks.
This potential adjustment reflects the ongoing efforts of the Chinese government to balance domestic energy costs with global market trends, ensuring both economic stability and industry sustainability.
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